Looming Crisis: How Jet Fuel Shortages Could Derail Summer Travel

Step onto the tarmac at any major international airport, and you will likely encounter a distinctive olfactory signature: a slightly sweet, oily fragrance reminiscent of antique paraffin lamps or vintage workshops. This pervasive scent of jet fuel is as integral to the travel experience as lukewarm coffee and the queues at passport control. However, this familiar aroma has become significantly more costly in recent weeks. Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, international markets have seen a dramatic surge in jet fuel prices. Now, there are growing fears that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, physical shortages could emerge in various regions over the coming months.

Airlines have already responded to the soaring cost of flying by raising ticket prices and reducing capacity in some instances. Without additional supply sources, this fuel deficit threatens to cause further disruptions and cancellations as the peak summer holiday season approaches. The crisis has laid bare the vulnerability of the UK aviation sector—Europe’s largest consumer of jet fuel—to instability in the Middle East. But what does this mean for travelers, and what solutions might be viable?

The Rush for Supplies

Under normal conditions, the Gulf region produces far more jet fuel than it needs domestically, making it a major exporter that accounts for approximately 20% of daily international fuel trade. Europe is a primary buyer of this fuel. However, due to insufficient refining capacity, the continent is heavily dependent on imports, with more than half typically sourced from the Gulf. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked for the past eight weeks, these supplies have been cut off, triggering a frantic search for alternative sources and driving prices upward.

In late February, prior to the initial US and Israeli airstrikes, jet fuel in Europe was trading at $831 per tonne. By early April, that figure had climbed to $1,838—a jump of over 120%. Although prices have since dipped, they have remained consistently above $1,500 per tonne.

Refining Bottlenecks

Jet fuel is essentially highly refined kerosene with specialized additives, usually created through the fractional distillation of crude oil. Because supply is largely constrained by refining capacity, the loss of Gulf output has caused jet fuel prices to rise much more sharply than those for crude oil.

"We have had five refinery closures in the last two-and-a-bit years in Europe, whereas jet fuel demand has been rising year on year," explains Amaar Khan, head of jet fuel pricing at Argus Media. "So, we see weaker supply, greater demand."

The UK is particularly reliant on imports, which constitute 65% of its needs. Two of the closed refineries were British, leaving only four operational in the country.

Reduced Schedules and Higher Fares

For airlines, fuel represents a significant financial burden, typically accounting for 25-30% of operating costs according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Consequently, price hikes can severely impact profitability.

In Europe and Asia, carriers often employ hedging strategies to mitigate exposure to rising prices, purchasing fuel or other oil products at fixed or capped costs in advance. However, this offers no complete protection. EasyJet, for instance, hedged 80% of its fuel supply for the first half of the year at $717 per tonne. Securing the remaining 20% at market rates cost the airline an additional £25 million in March alone.

Conversely, some carriers, particularly US-based ones, have largely avoided hedging in recent years because it can be costly when prices drop. This strategy has left them heavily exposed to the current crisis. In response, several airlines, including Air France KLM, Air Canada, and SAS, have already reduced their summer schedules. Earlier this month, the German group Lufthansa announced it would remove 20,000 flights from its schedule.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-03 23:03:41 UTC