Title: Summer Travel Plans Face Disruption Amid Rising Jet Fuel Costs and Supply Constraints

Step onto the tarmac of any major international airport, and you are immediately greeted by a distinct, pervasive scent. It is a slightly sweet, oily aroma reminiscent of antique paraffin lamps or old workshops—a smell as intrinsic to the travel experience as lukewarm coffee and passport control queues. However, this familiar odor of jet fuel has recently become significantly more costly. Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, international prices for jet fuel have surged, raising fears that physical shortages may emerge in various regions over the coming months if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

As flying costs escalate, numerous airlines have raised ticket prices and reduced their operational capacity. Without additional supply sources, the industry faces the prospect of further disruptions and cancellations as it heads into the peak summer holiday season. This crisis has highlighted the fragility of the aviation sector, particularly in the UK, which stands as Europe’s largest consumer of jet fuel. The question now is how this situation will affect summer travel and what measures might mitigate the impact.

A Race for Alternative Supplies

Under normal conditions, the Gulf region exports the majority of its jet fuel production, supplying approximately 20% of the daily volume traded on global markets. Europe, lacking sufficient domestic refining capacity, relies heavily on these imports, with more than half of its supply traditionally originating from the Gulf. However, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked for eight weeks, these shipments have been halted, triggering a frantic search for fuel from alternative sources.

This supply shock has driven prices to historic highs. In late February, prior to the initial US and Israeli airstrikes, jet fuel in Europe was valued at $831 per tonne. By early April, the price had spiked to $1,838 per tonne—a rise of over 120%. Although prices have since cooled, they have remained stubbornly above $1,500 per tonne.

Refining Bottlenecks Exacerbate the Crisis

Jet fuel is a highly refined kerosene derivative produced through the fractional distillation of crude oil, with specialized additives. Because global supply is tightly linked to refining capacity, the loss of Gulf output has caused jet fuel prices to outpace those of crude oil.

Amaar Khan, head of jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, notes the structural imbalance: "We have had five refinery closures in the last two-and-a-bit years in Europe, whereas jet fuel demand has been rising year on year. So, we see weaker supply, greater demand."

The United Kingdom is especially vulnerable to these dynamics. Imports account for 65% of the nation’s jet fuel needs. The closure of two British refineries in recent years has reduced the number of operational plants to just four, further constraining domestic supply.

Airlines Adapt to Soaring Costs

For airlines, fuel represents a significant financial burden, typically comprising 25-30% of operating costs, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Consequently, price volatility directly impacts profitability.

To manage risk, carriers in Europe and Asia often employ hedging strategies, securing fuel or oil products at fixed or capped rates in advance. However, this protection is not absolute. EasyJet, for instance, hedged 80% of its fuel supply for the first half of the year at $717 per tonne. Nevertheless, purchasing the remaining 20% at market rates resulted in an additional £25 million cost for the airline in March alone.

In contrast, many US carriers have largely avoided hedging in recent years, citing the high costs associated with buying insurance against falling prices. This strategy has left them heavily exposed to the current market turmoil.

In response to the financial strain, several major carriers have already adjusted their operations. Air France KLM, Air Canada, and SAS have scaled back their summer schedules. Similarly, the German group Lufthansa announced earlier this month that it would cancel 20,000 flights, signaling the severity of the disruption facing the aviation industry.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-03 23:03:41 UTC