Title: Summer Travel Plans at Risk as Jet Fuel Scarcity Drives Costs Up

Step onto the tarmac at any major international hub, and you are immediately greeted by a distinct, pervasive aroma. It is a slightly sweet, oily scent, reminiscent of antique paraffin lamps or old workshops, that has become as intrinsic to the travel experience as lukewarm coffee and passport control queues. However, the pungent smell of jet fuel now carries a much heavier price tag. Since the onset of conflict in the Middle East, international markets have seen a dramatic surge in jet fuel costs. There are growing fears that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen shortly, physical shortages may emerge in various regions over the coming months.

With flight costs escalating, many airlines have already raised ticket prices and reduced capacity. Without new supply sources, this lack of fuel could trigger further disruptions and cancellations during the crucial peak summer holiday season. The crisis has highlighted the extreme vulnerability of the UK aviation industry—the largest consumer of jet fuel in Europe—to instability in the Middle East. This raises critical questions about the impact on summer travel and potential solutions.

The Rush for Alternative Supplies

Under normal conditions, the Gulf region produces significantly more jet fuel than it consumes, making it a primary exporter that accounts for roughly 20% of daily international fuel trades. Europe is a major purchaser of this supply. Due to insufficient refining capacity within Europe, the continent relies heavily on imports, with more than half typically sourced from the Gulf. However, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked for eight weeks, these supplies have been cut off, forcing a frantic search for fuel from other regions and driving prices up sharply.

In late February, prior to the initial US and Israeli airstrikes, jet fuel in Europe was priced at $831 per tonne. By early April, costs had skyrocketed to $1838 per tonne, representing an increase of over 120%. Although prices have since dipped, they have remained consistently above $1500 per tonne.

Refining Bottlenecks Exacerbate the Crisis

Jet fuel is a highly refined kerosene product with specialized additives, typically created through the fractional distillation of crude oil. Because production is heavily constrained by refining capacity, the loss of Gulf output has caused jet fuel prices to rise far more steeply than crude oil prices.

"We have had five refinery closures in the last two-and a-bit years in Europe, whereas jet fuel demand has been rising year on year," explains Amaar Khan, head of jet fuel pricing at Argus Media. "So, we see weaker supply, greater demand."

The UK is particularly exposed to this issue, with imports constituting 65% of its needs. Two of the closed refineries were located in Britain, leaving only four operational facilities in the country.

Schedule Cuts and Rising Fares

For airlines, fuel is a significant financial burden, typically representing 25-30% of operating costs according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Consequently, price spikes can severely impact profitability. In Europe and Asia, carriers often employ hedging strategies to mitigate risk by purchasing fuel or oil products at fixed or capped prices in advance. However, this offers no total protection.

EasyJet, for instance, hedged 80% of its fuel supply for the first half of the year at $717 per tonne. Nevertheless, securing the remaining 20% at market rates cost the airline an additional £25 million in March alone. Conversely, many US carriers have opted not to hedge in recent years due to the high costs when prices fall, leaving them highly vulnerable to the current crisis.

In response to these pressures, airlines such as Air France KLM, Air Canada, and SAS have already reduced their summer schedules. The German group Lufthansa announced earlier this month that it would cancel 20,000 flights between...

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-03 23:03:41 UTC