Title: Reducing the Cascading Spatial Economic Effects of Highway Failures Through Network Redundancy

Abstract

While disasters directly compromise transportation infrastructure, the resulting economic harm often extends indirectly to unaffected regions via complex economic interdependencies. Nevertheless, the presence of viable alternative routes can significantly alleviate these negative consequences, even when primary transport corridors are severed. Rural zones, characterized by sparse transportation networks, are particularly susceptible to such disruptions. This research introduces a framework for assessing how redundant transport systems help buffer economic vulnerability during crises. The proposed approach integrates inter-regional road connectivity data with a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model. We applied this methodology to simulate road blockages in Japan’s Chugoku region, an area notable for its parallel highway infrastructure. The impacted zones are geographically adjacent to numerous rural communities and share strong economic ties with them. Through counterfactual simulations, we compared scenarios involving the disaster against situations where alternative roads were unavailable. Transportation effects were quantified via shifts in travel time, while economic repercussions were assessed using negative benefit metrics. The findings indicate that the capacity to reduce economic vulnerability extends beyond the immediate scope of transportation-related impacts.

Source: arXiv Generated at: 2026-06-02 00:00:00 UTC