Analysis: Andy Burnham’s path to the Commons is clearer, but victory in Makerfield remains uncertain

Two significant obstacles blocking Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament have now been removed. With a sitting Labour MP stepping down, the Greater Manchester mayor is free to declare his candidacy for parliament. This scenario mirrors the situation preceding the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, when Sir Keir Starmer previously exercised his influence over the National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from running. However, Downing Street has signaled it will not attempt to block him this time. Given that nearly a third of the party, including the health secretary and four ministers, have recently demanded the prime minister’s resignation, it is highly improbable that Sir Keir possessed the political capital to replicate his previous intervention. Consequently, this second barrier has been cleared.

The primary challenge, however, persists: can he actually win the seat? In the general election two years ago, Reform UK finished second to Labour in Makerfield, securing just under a third of the vote. Yet, in last week’s local elections, Reform achieved a landslide in Makerfield, capturing all 11 wards in the constituency and taking approximately half the vote. Nigel Farage has already declared that his party "will throw absolutely everything at it," setting the stage for a contentious and fierce contest against Reform.

Amidst this external threat, there are emerging indications of a ceasefire in Labour’s internal conflicts. Josh Simons, the current Labour MP for Makerfield who is resigning to facilitate Burnham’s entry, does not align with Burnham’s political faction. Simons is a close ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose immigration policies are heavily criticized by the Labour left. Furthermore, he formerly led the think tank Labour Together, an organization closely tied to the party’s right wing and instrumental in electing Sir Keir as leader. Therefore, it is particularly significant that Simons, who is not a typical Burnham ally, has chosen to step aside for him.

Burnham’s camp has swiftly branded him a "unity" candidate, hoping this narrative will intensify pressure on Sir Keir to outline a timeline for his exit from Downing Street. Beyond the leadership contest, members across various Labour factions have privately indicated they would support Burnham for party leader, provided he secures the by-election victory. This potential support extends to those who previously backed other leadership contenders.

One minister remarked, "I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people." When asked if this constituted an endorsement for Burnham’s leadership, the minister clarified, "If he wins [the by-election] we all are." Another minister, who had supported Sir Keir’s continuation as recently as Wednesday, stated, "It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform." An MP from the party’s right described Simons’s decision as "politically brave," noting that it "allows us to settle the question of if Andy Burnham is the right person for prime minister once and for all."

Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close friend of Burnham, voiced her backing on Friday. She affirmed her "full support" for him as the Labour candidate in Makerfield, citing "good authority" that there will be "absolutely no attempt to stop him" from running. Powell emphasized the need to change political tactics, stating, "We've got to do our politics differently, we've got to end the factionalism, we've got to embrace all the different traditions of the Labour Party, all the different voices and bring one team back together." She concluded, "And that means having Andy Burnham as a key player in that team, in my view."

However, this consensus is not universal. Luke Akehurst, a prominent figure on the Labour right, warned, "This level of internal game playing risks driving us into a General Election within months, as well as causing months of deep political instability that have real world consequences for the economy and national security. I am, to put it mildly, unimpressed." Another critic dismissed the situation as "disgraceful behaviour by both of them [Simons and Burnham]," adding, "We are the Labour Party."

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-15 10:47:30 UTC