Analysis: Andy Burnham’s Path to Parliament Is Clear, but Victory in Makerfield Remains Uncertain

Two significant obstacles facing Andy Burnham’s potential return to the House of Commons have now been removed. The resignation of a Labour Member of Parliament has opened the door for the Greater Manchester mayor to declare his candidacy. This scenario mirrors a previous attempt earlier this year during the Gorton and Denton by-election, when then-Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer leveraged his influence over the party’s National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from running. However, Downing Street has signaled that it will not intervene this time.

With nearly a third of the party, including the Health Secretary and four cabinet ministers, demanding the Prime Minister’s resignation over the past week, Sir Keir likely lacks the political capital to repeat his earlier block. Consequently, the immediate barrier to Burnham’s candidacy has been cleared. The more formidable challenge, however, remains: can he actually win the seat?

In the general election held two years ago, Reform UK finished second in Makerfield, polling just under a third of the vote behind Labour. The political landscape has shifted dramatically since then; in last week’s local elections, Reform UK swept all 11 wards within and around the constituency, capturing approximately half the vote. Nigel Farage has already declared that his party will "throw absolutely everything" at the contest, signaling a fierce and contentious battle ahead.

Despite the external threat from Reform, there are early indications of a ceasefire within Labour’s internal divisions. Josh Simons, the current Labour MP for Makerfield who is stepping aside to facilitate Burnham’s run, does not align with Burnham’s political faction. Simons is a close ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose controversial immigration policies are opposed by the Labour left. Furthermore, Simons previously led Labour Together, a think tank closely tied to the party’s right wing that played a pivotal role in Sir Keir’s leadership bid. It is therefore striking that Simons, not a natural ally of Burnham, has chosen to resign for him.

Burnham’s camp has quickly branded him a "unity" candidate, hoping this narrative will intensify pressure on Sir Keir to establish a timeline for leaving Downing Street. Privately, MPs across various factions have suggested they would back Burnham for the leadership if he secures the by-election victory. This potential support includes those who had previously endorsed other contenders. One minister remarked, "I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people." When asked if he supported Burnham’s leadership ambitions, the minister added, "If he wins [the by-election] we all are."

Another minister, who had only recently backed Sir Keir’s continuation in office, stated, "It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform." A right-wing MP described Simons’s decision as "politically brave," noting that it "allows us to settle the question of if Andy Burnham is the right person for prime minister once and for all."

Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close associate of Burnham, voiced her full support on Friday. She affirmed that she "fully supports" him as the Labour candidate in Makerfield and cited "good authority" confirming there will be no attempt to obstruct his candidacy. Powell emphasized the need for a new approach: "We've got to do our politics differently, we've got to end the factionalism, we've got to embrace all the different traditions of the Labour Party, all the different voices and bring one team back together. And that means having Andy Burnham as a key player in that team, in my view."

However, this consensus is not universal. Luke Akehurst, a prominent figure on the party’s right, criticized the move, warning that "this level of internal game playing risks driving us into a General Election within months, as well as causing months of deep political instability that have real world consequences for the economy and national security." He added, "I am, to put it mildly, unimpressed." Another critic condemned the situation, stating, "It is disgraceful behaviour by both of them [Simons and Burnham]. We are the Labour Party."

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-15 10:47:30 UTC