Analysis: Andy Burnham’s path to Parliament is defined, yet Makerfield remains a formidable challenge

Two significant obstacles to Andy Burnham’s return to the House of Commons have now been removed. With a Labour MP stepping down, the Mayor of Greater Manchester is free to declare his candidacy for Parliament. This marks a stark contrast to the previous instance earlier this year during the Gorton and Denton by-election, when Sir Keir Starmer leveraged his influence over the Labour National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from standing. However, Downing Street has signaled it will not intervene again. Given that nearly a third of the party—including the health secretary and four ministers—have recently demanded the Prime Minister’s resignation, it is doubtful Sir Keir possessed the political capital to enforce such a ban a second time. Consequently, this barrier has been cleared.

The primary question now is whether he can secure victory. In the general election two years ago, Reform UK finished second in Makerfield, where Burnham intends to stand, capturing just under a third of the vote. However, recent local elections tell a different story: last week, Reform UK dominated the area, winning all 11 wards and securing approximately half the constituency’s vote. Nigel Farage has already pledged that his party will “throw absolutely everything at it,” promising a fierce contest.

Amidst the anticipation of a contentious struggle against Reform, early indications suggest a potential ceasefire in Labour’s internal disputes. Josh Simons, the sitting MP for Makerfield who is resigning to facilitate Burnham’s entry, does not align with Burnham’s political wing. Simons is a staunch ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose controversial immigration policies have drawn criticism from the Labour left. Furthermore, he previously led the think tank Labour Together, an organization closely tied to the party’s right wing and instrumental in electing Sir Keir as leader. Therefore, it is significant that Simons, rather than a typical Burnham ally, has chosen to step aside.

Supporters of Burnham have swiftly branded him a “unity” candidate, hoping this narrative will intensify pressure on Sir Keir to announce a timeline for his exit from Number 10. Privately, figures across various Labour factions have indicated they might back Burnham for leadership if he succeeds in the by-election, including those who previously supported other contenders.

One minister remarked, “I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people.” When asked if he supported Burnham for leadership, the minister clarified, “If he wins [the by-election] we all are.” Another minister, who had only recently defended Sir Keir’s continuation in office, stated, “It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform.” A right-wing MP described Simons’s move as “politically brave,” noting it “allows us to settle the question of if Andy Burnham is the right person for prime minister once and for all.”

Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close friend of Burnham, voiced her support on Friday. She confirmed she “fully supports” his candidacy in Makerfield and cited “good authority” that there will be no attempt to block his run. Powell emphasized the need to change political conduct, stating, “We've got to do our politics differently, we've got to end the factionalism, we've got to embrace all the different traditions of the Labour Party, all the different voices and bring one team back together. And that means having Andy Burnham as a key player in that team, in my view.”

However, this sentiment is not universal. Luke Akehurst, a prominent figure on the party’s right, warned, “This level of internal game playing risks driving us into a General Election within months, as well as causing months of deep political instability that have real world consequences for the economy and national security. I am, to put it mildly, unimpressed.” Another critic condemned the situation, calling it “disgraceful behaviour by both of them [Simons and Burnham]. We are the Labour Party.”

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-15 10:47:30 UTC