Analysis: Andy Burnham’s Path to Parliament Narrows, but Makerfield Victory Remains Uncertain

Two significant obstacles blocking Andy Burnham’s return to the House of Commons have now been removed. The resignation of a Labour MP has opened the door for the Greater Manchester mayor to seek a parliamentary seat. This scenario mirrors the circumstances of the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, when Sir Keir Starmer reportedly leveraged his influence over the National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from running. However, Downing Street has signaled that it will not attempt to block him on this occasion.

Given that nearly a third of the party, including the health secretary and four cabinet ministers, have recently urged the prime minister to step down, it is highly improbable that Starmer would have possessed the political capital to repeat his previous intervention. With this potential interference ruled out, one final major challenge remains: the contest itself.

Can Burnham secure victory in Makerfield? The data suggests a difficult task. In the general election two years ago, Reform UK finished second to Labour in the constituency, securing just under a third of the vote. However, recent local elections tell a starkly different story. Last week, Reform UK swept all 11 wards in and around Makerfield, capturing approximately half the vote in the area. Nigel Farage has already declared that his party intends to "throw absolutely everything at it," foreshadowing a contentious and fierce campaign.

Amidst the looming clash with Reform, there are early indications of a ceasefire within Labour’s internal divisions. Notably, Josh Simons, the current MP for Makerfield who is stepping aside to facilitate Burnham’s entry, belongs to a different faction than the mayor. Simons is a close ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose immigration policies are heavily criticized by the Labour left. Furthermore, Simons previously led the think tank Labour Together, an organization closely tied to the party’s right wing that played a key role in Sir Keir’s rise to leadership.

The fact that Simons, who is not a traditional ally of Burnham, is making way for him is significant. Burnham’s camp has quickly branded him a "unity" candidate, hoping this narrative will intensify pressure on Sir Keir to establish a timeline for leaving Downing Street.

Beyond Burnham’s immediate circle, support appears to be widening across various factions. Some Labour figures, including those who previously backed other leadership contenders, have privately indicated they would back Burnham for leader if he wins the by-election. One minister remarked, "I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people." When asked directly if he supported Burnham’s leadership ambitions, the minister replied, "If he wins [the by-election] we all are."

Another minister, who had only recently supported Sir Keir staying in office, stated, "It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform." A right-wing MP described Simons’s decision as "politically brave," noting that it "allows us to settle the question of if Andy Burnham is the right person for prime minister once and for all."

Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close friend of Burnham, voiced her support on Friday. She confirmed she "fully supports" his candidacy in Makerfield and cited "good authority" that there will be "absolutely no attempt to stop him" from running. Powell emphasized the need to change political culture, stating, "We’ve got to do our politics differently, we’ve got to end the factionalism, we’ve got to embrace all the different traditions of the Labour Party, all the different voices and bring one team back together." She added, "And that means having Andy Burnham as a key player in that team, in my view."

However, this sentiment is not universal. Luke Akehurst, a prominent figure on the party’s right, warned that "this level of internal game playing risks driving us into a General Election within months, as well as causing months of deep political instability that have real world consequences for the economy and national security." He added, "I am, to put it mildly, unimpressed." Another critic labeled the situation "disgraceful behaviour by both of them [Simons and Burnham]," concluding simply, "We are the Labour Party."

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-15 10:47:30 UTC