Analysis: Andy Burnham’s path to Parliament is clearer, but victory in Makerfield remains uncertain

Two significant obstacles obstructing Andy Burnham’s return to the House of Commons have now been removed. With a sitting Labour MP stepping down, the Mayor of Greater Manchester is now free to declare his candidacy for Parliament. This scenario mirrors the situation preceding this year’s Gorton and Denton by-election, where Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer previously exercised his influence over Labour’s National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from running. However, Downing Street has signaled that it will not attempt to block him this time. Given that nearly a third of the party, including the Health Secretary and four other ministers, have recently demanded the Prime Minister’s resignation, it was becoming increasingly improbable that Sir Keir possessed the political capital to repeat his earlier intervention. Thus, the leadership has cleared the first major hurdle for Burnham.

The critical question now is whether he can secure victory in the constituency. During the general election two years ago, Reform UK finished second to Labour in Makerfield, capturing slightly less than a third of the vote. However, the political landscape has shifted dramatically; in last week’s local elections, Reform UK defeated Labour in all 11 wards within and surrounding half of the Makerfield constituency, taking roughly half the vote share. Nigel Farage has already declared that his party will "throw absolutely everything" into the contest, signaling a fierce and contentious battle ahead.

Amidst this external threat, there are emerging indications of a ceasefire in Labour’s internal conflicts. The MP for Makerfield, Josh Simons, is the one stepping aside to facilitate Burnham’s entry into Parliament. Notably, Simons does not align with Burnham’s political faction. He is a close ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose immigration policies are viewed with deep skepticism by the Labour left. Furthermore, Simons formerly directed Labour Together, a think tank closely linked to the party’s right wing that played a pivotal role in Sir Keir’s leadership campaign. Consequently, Simons’s decision to stand down for Burnham is particularly significant.

Burnham’s allies have quickly branded him a "unity" figure, hoping to leverage this narrative to pressure Sir Keir into establishing a timeline for his departure from Downing Street. Beyond Burnham’s immediate circle, various factions within Labour have privately indicated they would back his leadership bid, provided he wins the by-election. This potential support extends to those who previously favored other leadership contenders. One minister remarked, "I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people." When asked if he supported Burnham for leadership, the minister clarified, "If he wins [the by-election] we all are."

Another minister, who had only recently voiced support for Sir Keir remaining in office, stated, "It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform." A right-wing MP described Simons’s decision as "politically brave," noting that it "allows us to settle the question of if Andy Burnham is the right person for prime minister once and for all."

Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close associate of Burnham, publicly endorsed his candidacy on Friday. She expressed "full support" for him as the Labour candidate in Makerfield and confirmed via "good authority" that there would be "absolutely no attempt to stop him" from running. Powell emphasized the need to change political culture, stating, "We've got to do our politics differently, we've got to end the factionalism, we've got to embrace all the different traditions of the Labour Party, all the different voices and bring one team back together. And that means having Andy Burnham as a key player in that team, in my view."

Despite this growing momentum, consensus is not universal. Luke Akehurst, a prominent right-wing voice, criticized the move, warning, "This level of internal game playing risks driving us into a General Election within months, as well as causing months of deep political instability that have real world consequences for the economy and national security. I am, to put it mildly, unimpressed." Another critic dismissed the situation as "disgraceful behaviour by both of them [Simons and Burnham]," adding, "We are the Labour Party."

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-15 10:47:30 UTC