Analysis: Andy Burnham’s Path to Parliament Clears Obstacles, but Makerfield Victory Remains Uncertain

Two significant barriers blocking Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster have now been removed. With a Labour MP announcing their resignation, the Greater Manchester mayor is free to seek a parliamentary seat. This development mirrors the situation during the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, when Sir Keir Starmer, leveraging his influence over the Labour National Executive Committee, previously prevented Burnham from standing. However, Downing Street has signaled it will not intervene to stop him this time. Given the recent turmoil—where nearly a third of the party, including the health secretary and four ministers, have demanded the prime minister’s resignation—it is highly improbable that Starmer would have possessed the political capital to replicate his earlier blockade. Consequently, the final major obstacle remaining is whether Burnham can actually secure victory in the election.

In the general election two years ago, Reform UK finished second in Makerfield, the constituency where Burnham intends to run, capturing just under one-third of the vote. The political landscape appears to have shifted dramatically, however. In last week’s local elections, Reform UK swept all 11 wards in and around half of the Makerfield constituency, effectively dismantling Labour’s hold. Nigel Farage has already declared that his party “will throw absolutely everything at it,” setting the stage for a contentious and fierce contest.

Despite the external threat from Reform, there are early indications of a ceasefire in Labour’s internal conflicts. Josh Simons, the current Labour MP for Makerfield who is stepping aside to allow Burnham to run, does not belong to Burnham’s usual political circle. Simons is a close associate of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose controversial immigration policies have drawn sharp criticism from the Labour left. Furthermore, Simons formerly directed Labour Together, a think tank closely linked to the party’s right wing and instrumental in Sir Keir’s rise to leadership. It is therefore striking that Simons, not a typical ally, is the one facilitating Burnham’s entry.

Burnham’s camp has swiftly branded him a candidate for “unity,” hoping this narrative will intensify pressure on Sir Keir to establish a timeline for leaving Downing Street. Privately, figures across various Labour factions have suggested they might back Burnham for leadership if he wins the by-election. This potential support extends to those who have previously championed other leadership contenders. One minister remarked, “I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people.” When asked if they supported Burnham becoming leader, the minister clarified, “If he wins [the by-election] we all are.” Another minister, who had supported Sir Keir staying on as recently as Wednesday, stated, “It’s Burnham now, if he can beat Reform.” A right-wing MP described Simons’s decision as “politically brave,” noting it “allows us to settle the question of if Andy Burnham is the right person for prime minister once and for all.”

Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close friend of Burnham, publicly voiced her backing on Friday. She expressed “full support” for his candidacy in Makerfield, citing “good authority” that there would be no attempt to prevent him from running. Powell emphasized the need to change political conduct, stating, “We’ve got to do our politics differently, we’ve got to end the factionalism, we’ve got to embrace all the different traditions of the Labour Party, all the different voices and bring one team back together.” She concluded, “And that means having Andy Burnham as a key player in that team, in my view.”

However, this sentiment is not universal. Luke Akehurst, a prominent figure on the party’s right, criticized the move, warning that such internal maneuvering “risks driving us into a General Election within months, as well as causing months of deep political instability that have real world consequences for the economy and national security.” He added, “I am, to put it mildly, unimpressed.” Another critic condemned the actions of both Simons and Burnham as “disgraceful behaviour,” asserting, “We are the Labour Party.”

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-15 10:47:30 UTC