Analysis: Andy Burnham’s Path to Parliament Narrows, but Makerfield Victory Remains Uncertain

Two significant obstacles have been removed from Andy Burnham’s path toward a return to Parliament. With a Labour incumbent stepping down, the Greater Manchester mayor is now free to submit his candidacy for a parliamentary seat. This marks a stark contrast to the situation earlier this year during the Gorton and Denton by-election, when Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer leveraged his influence over Labour’s National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from running.

However, Downing House has signaled it will not intervene this time. Given that nearly a third of the party—including the health secretary and four ministers—have recently demanded the Prime Minister’s resignation, it is improbable that Sir Keir would have possessed the political capital to repeat his previous block. With this administrative barrier gone, the decisive challenge remains: can Burnham actually secure victory?

In the general election two years ago, Reform UK finished second in Makerfield, the constituency Burnham would represent, capturing just under a third of the vote. The political landscape has shifted dramatically since then; in last week’s local elections, Reform UK swept all 11 wards in and around Makerfield, taking nearly half the constituency’s vote. Nigel Farage has already declared that his party intends to "throw absolutely everything" into the contest.

Amidst the looming, contentious battle with Reform, there are tentative signs of a ceasefire in Labour’s internal strife. Josh Simons, the current Labour MP for Makerfield who is resigning to facilitate Burnham’s entry, does not align with Burnham’s political faction. Simons is a staunch ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose immigration policies have drawn sharp criticism from the Labour left. Furthermore, Simons formerly led the think tank Labour Together, an organization closely tied to the party’s right wing and instrumental in Sir Keir’s leadership bid.

It is therefore significant that Simons, rather than a typical Burnham ally, is the one making way for him. Burnham’s camp has rapidly branded him a "unity" candidate, hoping this narrative will intensify pressure on Sir Keir to establish a timeline for leaving Downing Street.

Behind the scenes, members across various Labour factions have privately indicated they might back Burnham for leadership, contingent on his success in the by-election. This includes individuals who previously supported other contenders. One minister remarked, "I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people." When asked if they supported Burnham for the top job, the minister clarified, "If he wins [the by-election] we all are."

Another minister, who had only recently urged Sir Keir to stay in office as of Wednesday, stated, "It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform." A right-wing MP described Simons’s decision as "politically brave," noting it "allows us to settle the question of if Andy Burnham is the right person for prime minister once and for all."

Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close confidante of Burnham, voiced her backing on Friday. She expressed "full support" for his candidacy in Makerfield, citing "good authority" that there would be "absolutely no attempt to stop him" from running. Powell emphasized the need to change the party’s approach: "We've got to do our politics differently, we've got to end the factionalism, we've got to embrace all the different traditions of the Labour Party, all the different voices and bring one team back together. And that means having Andy Burnham as a key player in that team, in my view."

Despite this momentum, consensus is not universal. Luke Akehurst, a prominent right-wing figure, warned that such internal maneuvering risks precipitating a general election within months, potentially causing "months of deep political instability that have real world consequences for the economy and national security," adding he was, to put it mildly, "unimpressed." Another critic condemned the situation, stating, "It is disgraceful behaviour by both of them [Simons and Burnham]. We are the Labour Party."

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-15 10:47:30 UTC