Title: The contest to succeed Starmer has begun, yet he remains confronted with critical decisions

According to a close associate of the Prime Minister, the preoccupations of Number 10 have revolved around two recurring questions for several months: “Does Wes have the numbers? And does Andy have a seat?” While the answer to the first query remains a subject of contention—Streeting’s camp claims they do, whereas Starmer’s team insists they do not—the debate has largely become irrelevant. This is because Wes Streeting has resigned from the government to position himself for a bid for the top job.

Simultaneously, Number 10 was alerted on Thursday morning to the fact that Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, had secured an MP willing to vacate their constituency, allowing him to enter the fray. This development marks the commencement of his long-awaited campaign to reach Downing Street. Although the process is not yet formalized, the competition to succeed the Prime Minister is effectively underway, with both Burnham and Streeting explicitly stating their ambitions on Saturday.

Reactions within the party vary. One cabinet minister noted that the public appears “pretty horrified” by Labour’s rapid descent into a leadership battle. Conversely, another minister argued that the public’s verdict delivered at last week’s ballot boxes “just had to be respected.” Despite the chaos and anger, Labour’s factions have effectively decided that a contest to replace Sir Keir Starmer is long overdue. However, Starmer still faces numerous significant choices, some of which impact everyone, while others are solely his responsibility.

If the challengers’ strategy unfolds as planned, a leadership contest is expected to take place over the summer, potentially resulting in a new Prime Minister by the party conference in late September. This schedule implies that even if Starmer is preparing to leave, he will retain office for a considerable period. It is important to note, however, that this timeline is far from set in stone. High-ranking Labour figures are already debating whether a contest will occur at all. One minister suggested that if Burnham wins the by-election, he and Streeting should seek an “accommodation” to prevent a “catastrophic” leadership battle. Another senior figure predicts that Burnham’s momentum is so great that no one would oppose him, suggesting he might be “carried south for a coronation,” which could accelerate the transition of power.

This perspective is not universally shared. Many in the government are furious with Burnham and insist on a contest to allow the party to resolve its internal differences. Furthermore, there is no guarantee of Burnham’s success. Reform UK is determined to win the Makerfield seat to block him, bringing significant financial resources and currently leading in the polls. Despite Burnham’s personal popularity, Labour is currently neither popular nor wealthy. When asked what would happen if the “King of the North” fails to win, a minister’s response was best characterized by a “painful sigh.” Would Burnham’s supporters shift their backing to Angela Rayner? Would MPs panic and return to Starmer? Although the rush to distance themselves from the party leadership has been intense, given that it is 2026, anything remains possible.

Regardless of the outcome, Starmer has vital time ahead in Number 10, facing international conflicts and intense domestic pressures. Global events do not pause because a governing party is experiencing a public crisis, nor do domestic problems vanish. Currently, the UK, alongside France, is working with approximately 40 other nations to form an international coalition aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, upcoming summits present further challenges: a NATO summit where defense spending will be a key topic, and an EU summit where the UK hopes to foster a closer relationship with the European bloc.

Domestically, the government’s workload is overwhelming, and several decisions are already overdue. A defense spending plan, delayed for months, remains unsigned on the Prime Minister’s desk. There is also a pending consultation regarding stricter regulations on children’s social media use.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-16 15:57:33 UTC