Title: Chris Mason: The Unseen Battle for the Next Prime Minister

It is increasingly probable, perhaps even highly likely, that Britain will see a new prime minister soon—potentially within weeks or months. While the atmosphere is significantly less chaotic and unpredictable than it was last week, the political maneuvering that will determine Sir Keir Starmer’s successor is unfolding in real time.

However, a closer look reveals nuances often overlooked. As Starmer’s allies frequently remind us, there has been no formal challenge to his leadership, and he is currently focused on governing. This has left some Labour MPs frustrated by the lack of a defined timeline for his departure. Others speculate that maintaining ambiguity might actually benefit Andy Burnham, who is facing a by-election in Makerfield. If Starmer does not announce a resignation plan, Burnham can argue that his own victory would compel the prime minister to step down.

This dynamic creates a unique asymmetry. This is not a formal leadership contest, but a "shadow" one, and the two main figures face different electoral pressures. Burnham must win the Makerfield by-election, whereas his potential rival, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, does not. Consequently, their messaging is tailored to distinct audiences.

Burnham’s immediate pitch is geographically focused on the Makerfield constituency, comprising towns and villages near Wigan, St Helens, and Leigh in the northwest. Streeting, meanwhile, is addressing Labour MPs and party members, whom he must persuade should a formal contest arise next month.

Now a backbencher, Streeting is free from the constraints of front-bench collective responsibility. This newfound liberty allowed him to declare over the weekend that Brexit was a "catastrophic mistake" and to express hope that the UK might one day rejoin the European Union. Burnham’s stance is not entirely dissimilar; last autumn, he expressed a desire to see the UK rejoin the EU during his lifetime. However, the Greater Manchester mayor has shifted his emphasis. He now describes immediate talks on rejoining the bloc as "the last thing we should do."

This pivot is unsurprising given that Makerfield voted decisively for Brexit and showed strong support for Reform UK in local elections. Burnham stated that his current approach aims to foster unity, noting that he fully understands why many voters were drawn to Reform UK.

The resurgence of Brexit as a public debate has irritated many Labour MPs. "It's mad. The referendum decision has to stand," one minister told the author. "I know what plenty of Labour Party members are like. They think the country got it wrong and they'd love to reverse Brexit. But it makes us look very detached. Improve Brexit, sure, but let's not get into overturning it, for goodness sake."

On economic policy, Burnham has affirmed his intention to uphold the government’s "fiscal rules" regarding borrowing limits. He has sought to reassure markets, despite previously suggesting some defense spending might be excluded from these constraints. Last autumn, he told the New Statesman that the government needed to "get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets." These remarks drew public rebukes from several Labour MPs, including the prime minister and chancellor. Burnham later clarified that his comment referred to politicians who had lost control of public spending, thereby indebting the nation to markets.

With Burnham expected to be confirmed as Labour’s by-election candidate within the next day or so, and Streeting likely to speak later this week, both figures will face intense scrutiny as they outline their visions.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-19 09:50:45 UTC