Title: Chris Mason: The Unseen Race for the Premiership

It appears increasingly probable—perhaps even highly likely—that the UK will see a new prime minister within weeks or months. The political atmosphere has cooled considerably compared to the chaotic and volatile week that just passed. While Sir Keir Starmer remains in office and insists on focusing on his current duties, with no formal challenge mounted against him yet, the underlying dynamics of his potential succession are unfolding in real time.

Yet, the situation is nuanced. Some Labour MPs are frustrated by Starmer’s lack of a departure timeline. Meanwhile, there is speculation that Andy Burnham benefits politically from this ambiguity; if Starmer does not announce a resignation, a by-election victory for Burnham in Makerfield could be framed as the catalyst that finally forces the prime minister out.

This scenario presents a curious asymmetry. Unlike a formal leadership contest, Burnham must secure a by-election win while his potential rival, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, does not. Consequently, they are addressing vastly different audiences. Burnham’s immediate pitch is geographically specific, targeting voters in the Makerfield constituency—communities around Wigan, St Helens, and Leigh in the northwest. Streeting, by contrast, is speaking to Labour MPs and party members, the very people he must persuade should a leadership contest arise next month.

Now a backbencher, Streeting is free from the constraints of collective front-bench responsibility, allowing him to speak openly. Over the weekend, he described Brexit as a "catastrophic mistake" and expressed hope that the UK might one day rejoin the European Union. While Burnham shares the general sentiment, having previously stated he hopes to see the UK rejoin the EU in his lifetime, his current messaging is more cautious. The Mayor of Greater Manchester now argues that discussing rejoining the bloc is "the last thing we should do." This shift aligns with the reality that Makerfield voted decisively for Brexit and showed strong support for Reform UK in recent local elections. Burnham notes that this approach reflects his desire for unity, adding that he fully understands the appeal of Reform UK to many voters.

Notably, several Labour MPs are irritated that Brexit has re-emerged as a public debate. "It’s mad. The referendum decision has to stand," one minister remarked. "I know how many Labour Party members feel—they believe the country erred and would love to reverse Brexit. But it makes us appear detached. We should aim to improve Brexit, but let’s not attempt to overturn it, for heaven’s sake."

On economic policy, Burnham has affirmed his commitment to maintaining the borrowing limits currently defined as "fiscal rules." Having previously floated excluding certain defense spending from these rules and telling the New Statesman last autumn that the government needed to "get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets," he has worked to reassure financial markets. Those remarks drew public rebukes from some Labour MPs, including the prime minister and the chancellor. Burnham later clarified that his comment referred to politicians risking the country’s financial stability by losing control of public spending, rather than a critique of market dependence.

Burnham is expected to be officially confirmed as the Labour candidate for the by-election within the next day or two. Meanwhile, more statements from Streeting are anticipated later this week, as both figures face increasing scrutiny while outlining their visions.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-19 09:50:45 UTC