Title: Chris Mason: The unseen race for the next prime minister

It is now increasingly probable—perhaps even highly likely—that the UK will see a new prime minister either within weeks or months. The atmosphere surrounding this potential leadership change is significantly calmer, less chaotic, and far less unpredictable than it was just last week. Nevertheless, the political maneuvering that will determine who is best positioned to succeed Sir Keir Starmer is unfolding publicly.

However, a caveat is necessary. As Starmer’s allies frequently emphasize, there has been no official challenge to his leadership yet, and the current prime minister is clearly focused on executing his duties for the time being. Despite this, frustration is mounting among some Labour MPs who are annoyed by Starmer’s failure to establish a clear timeline for his exit. Meanwhile, others speculate that it might strategically benefit Andy Burnham in his upcoming by-election bid in Makerfield. If Starmer has not yet announced his resignation, Burnham can argue that a victory in Makerfield would effectively force the prime minister out.

This situation presents an interesting asymmetry: this is an informal contest rather than a formal one, and the candidates face different pressures. Burnham must win his by-election, whereas his potential rival, the former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, does not. Consequently, they are addressing distinct audiences. Burnham’s immediate focus is geographical and demographic, targeting the communities in towns and villages around Wigan, St Helens, and Leigh that constitute the Makerfield constituency. In contrast, Streeting, now a backbencher, is speaking to Labour MPs and party members, the very group he must persuade if a leadership contest occurs next month.

Having been freed from the constraints of front-bench collective responsibility for the first time in years, Streeting is now able to voice his opinions openly. Over the weekend, he declared that Brexit was a "catastrophic mistake" and expressed hope that the UK would one day rejoin the European Union. While Burnham’s stance is not drastically different—he noted last autumn that he hoped to see the UK rejoin the EU within his lifetime—he has adjusted his rhetoric. The Greater Manchester mayor now stated that discussing rejoining the bloc is "the last thing we should do" at present. This shift is perhaps unsurprising given that Makerfield voted decisively for Brexit and showed strong support for Reform UK in local elections. Burnham claims this emphasis is intended to foster unity, acknowledging over the weekend that he fully understands why many were drawn to Reform UK.

Incidentally, many Labour MPs are irritated that Brexit has resurfaced as a major public debate. "It’s mad. The referendum decision has to stand," one minister remarked. "I know how many Labour Party members feel. They believe the country erred and would love to reverse Brexit. But it makes us appear detached. We should aim to improve Brexit, but let’s not attempt to overturn it, for heaven’s sake."

On economic policy, Burnham has stated he would uphold the borrowing limits, or "fiscal rules," currently established by the government. He has worked to reassure financial markets, having recently suggested excluding certain defence spending from these limits. Last autumn, he told the New Statesman that the government needed to "get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets." These remarks drew public rebuke from several Labour MPs, including the prime minister and the chancellor. Burnham later clarified that his comment referred to politicians allowing the country to fall into debt with markets due to a loss of control over public spending, rather than implying the current government’s policies were inherently flawed.

There is much more to follow in this developing story. Burnham is expected to be formally confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the by-election within the next day or so, while we can anticipate further statements from Streeting later this week. Both figures will face intense scrutiny as they attempt to outline their visions.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-19 09:50:45 UTC