Title: Chris Mason: The Unseen Race for the Next Prime Minister

It appears increasingly probable—perhaps even highly likely—that the UK will soon see a change in leadership, potentially within weeks or months. While the atmosphere is significantly calmer and less chaotic than it was just last week, the political maneuvering that will determine Sir Keir Starmer’s successor is unfolding in plain sight.

However, a closer look reveals nuances often overlooked. As Starmer’s allies frequently remind us, no formal challenge has been launched, and the Prime Minister remains focused on executing his current duties. Nevertheless, frustration is mounting among some Labour MPs who are dismayed by his lack of a clear exit timeline. Others speculate that this ambiguity might actually benefit Andy Burnham, who is preparing for the Makerfield by-election. By keeping Starmer’s departure plans vague, Burnham can argue that a victory in Makerfield would be the catalyst forcing the Prime Minister out.

This scenario presents a unique asymmetry. Unlike a standard leadership election, this is a "shadow contest" with uneven playing fields. Burnham must first secure a by-election victory, whereas his potential rival, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, does not face such an immediate hurdle. Consequently, their messaging is tailored to distinctly different audiences.

For Burnham, the pitch is local and demographic, targeting the communities around Wigan, St Helens, and Leigh in the northwest that comprise the Makerfield constituency. Streeting, now a backbencher, addresses a different crowd: Labour MPs and party members who will decide the outcome if a formal contest arises next month.

Freed from the constraints of front-bench collective responsibility for the first time in years, Streeting has regained the ability to speak openly. Over the weekend, he characterized Brexit as a "catastrophic mistake" and expressed hope that the UK might one day rejoin the European Union. While Burnham’s views are not entirely dissimilar—he previously stated he hoped to see the UK rejoin the EU within his lifetime—his current rhetoric is more cautious. The Greater Manchester mayor now suggests that discussing rejoining the bloc is "the last thing we should do." This shift is understandable given that Makerfield voted decisively for Brexit and showed strong support for Reform UK in local elections. Burnham argues that his current stance is an attempt at unity, noting that he fully understands the appeal of Reform UK to many voters.

Despite this, many Labour MPs are irritated that Brexit has become a public talking point again. "It's mad. The referendum decision has to stand," one minister remarked. "I know what plenty of Labour Party members are like. They think the country got it wrong and they'd love to reverse Brexit. But it makes us look very detached. Improve Brexit, sure, but let's not get into overturning it, for goodness sake."

On economic policy, Burnham has pledged to uphold the borrowing limits currently defined as "fiscal rules" by the government. He has worked to reassure financial markets, though he has previously faced criticism for suggesting some defense spending might be excluded from these constraints. Last autumn, he told the New Statesman that the government needed to "get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets." These comments drew public rebukes from senior Labour figures, including the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. Burnham later clarified that his remark referred to politicians losing control of public spending, thereby indebtedness the country to markets, rather than the current administration's specific policies.

With Burnham expected to be confirmed as Labour’s candidate in the by-election within the next day or so, and Streeting anticipated to speak later this week, both figures will face intense scrutiny as they outline their visions for the future.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-19 09:50:45 UTC