Chris Mason: The Unseen Battle for the Premiership

It is increasingly probable—perhaps even highly likely—that the UK will see a new prime minister within weeks or months. While the atmosphere is far less chaotic and volatile than it was just seven days ago, the political maneuvering determining who is best positioned to succeed Sir Keir Starmer is unfolding in real time.

However, a crucial caveat remains: as Starmer’s allies frequently remind us, no formal challenge has been launched. For the moment, the prime minister is signaling that he intends to continue with his duties. This stance has frustrated some Labour MPs, who are annoyed by the lack of a clear timeline for his departure. Others speculate that this ambiguity might actually benefit Andy Burnham. In his upcoming by-election campaign in Makerfield, Burnham could argue that his victory would be the catalyst forcing Starmer to step down, a narrative that is harder to sustain if the PM has already announced his exit.

This scenario presents an intriguing asymmetry. Unlike a standard leadership contest, Burnham is simultaneously fighting for a specific seat, whereas his potential rival, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, does not have such an immediate electoral obligation. Consequently, they are addressing distinct audiences.

For Burnham, the pitch is geographically and demographically targeted at the towns and villages surrounding Wigan, St Helens, and Leigh in the North West. Streeting, by contrast, is speaking to Labour MPs and party members, the constituency he must persuade should a leadership contest arise next month. Now a backbencher, Streeting is freed from the constraints of frontbench collective responsibility, allowing him to speak openly. This weekend, he declared that Brexit was a “catastrophic mistake” and expressed hope that the UK would eventually rejoin the European Union.

Burnham’s underlying sentiment is not vastly different; he noted last autumn that he hoped to see the UK rejoin the EU within his lifetime. However, the Greater Manchester mayor has shifted his rhetoric significantly, stating that discussing rejoining the bloc is “the last thing we should do” at present. This pivot is unsurprising given that Makerfield voted decisively for Brexit and showed strong support for Reform UK in recent local elections. Burnham explained that his current emphasis is aimed at unity, acknowledging that he fully understands why many voters were attracted to Reform UK.

Interestingly, many Labour MPs are irritated that Brexit has become a primary public debate again. “It’s mad. The referendum decision has to stand,” one minister told me. “I know what plenty of Labour Party members are like. They think the country got it wrong and they'd love to reverse Brexit. But it makes us look very detached. Improve Brexit, sure, but let's not get into overturning it, for goodness sake.”

On economic policy, Burnham has pledged to uphold the borrowing limits currently defined as “fiscal rules” by the government. He has worked to reassure markets on this front, despite recently suggesting that some defense spending might be excluded from these constraints. Last autumn, he told the New Statesman that the government needed to “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets.” These remarks drew public rebuke from several Labour MPs, including the prime minister and the chancellor. Burnham later clarified that he was referring to politicians allowing the country to become indebted to markets due to a loss of control over public spending, rather than implying the government itself was in such a state.

There is much more to come. Burnham is expected to be formally confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the by-election within the next day or so, while Streeting is anticipated to release further statements later this week. Both figures will face intense scrutiny as they attempt to outline their visions for the future.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-19 09:50:45 UTC