Chris Mason: Inside the shadow contest to be our next prime minister

The emergence of a new prime minister is now considered probable, perhaps even highly likely, potentially occurring within weeks or months. The political atmosphere has stabilized significantly compared to the volatile and noisy uncertainty of last week. Nevertheless, the maneuvering to determine who is best positioned to succeed Sir Keir Starmer is unfolding in real time.

However, observers must remember that, as Starmer’s allies frequently note, no formal challenge has been launched. For the moment, the prime minister is focused on executing his duties. Yet, frustration is mounting among some Labour MPs who believe he has failed to establish a clear timeline for his resignation. Conversely, there is speculation that delaying a departure announcement could strategically benefit Andy Burnham. In his upcoming by-election campaign in Makerfield, Burnham can argue that his victory would compel Starmer to step down, thereby avoiding the need for him to announce a specific exit plan beforehand.

This situation presents a unique asymmetry. Unlike a formal leadership race, Burnham must first secure a by-election victory, whereas his potential rival, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, does not face this immediate electoral hurdle. Consequently, they are addressing distinct audiences. Burnham’s immediate pitch is geographically and demographically targeted at the Makerfield constituency, comprising towns and villages near Wigan, St Helens, and Leigh in north-west England. Streeting, now a backbencher, is addressing a different group: Labour MPs and party members whose support he would need to secure in a contest potentially occurring next month.

Having been freed from the constraints of front-bench collective responsibility for the first time in years, Streeting is now able to speak freely. Over the weekend, he stated that he viewed Brexit as a "catastrophic mistake" and expressed hope that the UK would one day rejoin the European Union. While Burnham’s stance is not drastically different—he noted last autumn that he hopes to see the UK rejoin the EU within his lifetime—he has adjusted his rhetorical emphasis. The Mayor of Greater Manchester now asserts that discussing rejoining the bloc is "the last thing we should do." This shift is unsurprising given that Makerfield voted decisively for Brexit and showed strong support for Reform UK in recent local elections. Burnham explained that his current focus is on unity, acknowledging over the weekend that he fully understands the appeal of Reform UK to many voters.

Interestingly, many Labour MPs are irritated that Brexit has resurfaced as a major public debate. "It's mad. The referendum decision has to stand," one minister remarked. "I know what plenty of Labour Party members are like. They think the country got it wrong and they'd love to reverse Brexit. But it makes us look very detached. Improve Brexit, sure, but let's not get into overturning it, for goodness sake."

On economic policy, Burnham has pledged to uphold the "fiscal rules" regarding borrowing limits set by the current government. He has sought to reassure financial markets on this issue, despite recently suggesting the exclusion of some defense spending from these constraints. Last autumn, he told the New Statesman that the government needed to "get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets." These comments drew public rebuke from several Labour MPs, including the prime minister and the chancellor. Burnham later clarified that his remark referred to politicians placing the country in debt to markets due to a loss of control over public spending, rather than the current administration's policies.

There is much more to follow. Burnham is expected to be officially confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the by-election within the next day or so, while we can anticipate further statements from Streeting later this week. Both figures will face intense scrutiny as they attempt to define their visions for leadership.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-19 09:50:45 UTC