Title: Chris Mason: The Unofficial Race for the Next Prime Minister

It is now highly probable, if not almost certain, that the UK will soon welcome a new prime minister, potentially within a matter of weeks or months. The atmosphere surrounding this transition is notably calmer, less chaotic, and far more predictable than it was just last week. Yet, the political maneuvering that will likely determine Sir Keir Starmer’s successor is unfolding in plain sight.

However, a crucial distinction must be made: as Prime Minister’s supporters frequently remind us, there has been no formal challenge launched against Starmer. For the moment, he remains focused on executing his duties. Despite this, frustration is mounting among some Labour MPs who are concerned by the absence of a clear timeline for his departure. Meanwhile, others speculate that Starmer’s silence might actually benefit Andy Burnham, who is preparing for the upcoming Makerfield by-election. The logic is that if Starmer has not yet announced his resignation, a victory for Burnham could be framed as the catalyst that finally forces the Prime Minister out.

This scenario presents a unique asymmetry: this is an informal contest, and the candidates face different immediate pressures. Burnham must secure a win in his by-election, whereas his potential rival, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, does not. Consequently, their current messaging is tailored to distinct audiences. Burnham’s immediate pitch is geographically specific, targeting the communities of Wigan, St Helens, and Leigh in northwest England that comprise the Makerfield constituency. Streeting, conversely, is addressing Labour MPs and party members, aiming to win their support should a formal leadership contest arise next month.

Now a backbencher, Streeting is no longer bound by the collective responsibility of the front bench, freeing him to speak publicly without restriction. Over the weekend, he declared that Brexit was a "catastrophic mistake" and expressed his hope that the UK would eventually rejoin the European Union. Burnham’s stance is not entirely dissimilar; last autumn, he expressed a desire to see the UK rejoin the EU within his lifetime. However, the Mayor of Greater Manchester has adjusted his rhetoric, stating that discussing reentry into the bloc is "the last thing we should do" at present.

Given that Makerfield voted decisively for Brexit and strongly supported Reform UK in local elections, this shift in emphasis is unsurprising. Burnham argues that his current focus is driven by a desire for unity, noting that he fully comprehends the appeal of Reform UK to many voters. This reopening of the Brexit debate has irritated several Labour MPs. "It's mad. The referendum decision has to stand," one minister told me. "I know what plenty of Labour Party members are like. They think the country got it wrong and they'd love to reverse Brexit. But it makes us look very detached. Improve Brexit, sure, but let's not get into overturning it, for goodness sake."

On economic policy, Burnham has pledged to uphold the "fiscal rules" regarding borrowing limits established by the current government. He has sought to reassure financial markets, particularly after recently suggesting that certain defense expenditures might be excluded from these constraints. In an interview with the New Statesman last autumn, he claimed the government needed to "get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets." These remarks drew public rebuke from some Labour MPs, including the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. Burnham subsequently clarified that his comment referred to politicians allowing the country to become indebted to markets due to a loss of control over public spending.

More developments are expected soon. Burnham is anticipated to be officially confirmed as the Labour candidate for the by-election within the next day or two, while Streeting is expected to release further statements later this week. Both figures will face intense scrutiny as they attempt to outline their visions.

Source: BBC News Generated at: 2026-05-19 09:50:45 UTC