Title: Neetyabhas: A Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Public Policy Optimization in Rational Agent-Based Models

Abstract

Purpose While the World Health Organization’s non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as lockdowns and vaccinations) have proven effective in curbing viral transmission, they frequently generate significant economic burdens. Prior studies often overlook individual behavioral dynamics and operate under the unrealistic assumptions of perfect infection tracking and flawless policy execution. Consequently, these models fail to address the uncertainties and errors inherent in real-world scenarios.

Methods This study introduces an integrative approach that accounts for uncertainties within both epidemic measurement (specifically infections and hospitalizations) and policy implementation. We constructed a simulation environment comprising 1,000 individuals who make real-time decisions regarding mask usage, vaccination, and shopping activities. Simultaneously, policymakers deploy interventions, including mandates and lockdowns, based on observed health and economic metrics. The framework is powered by hierarchical reinforcement learning agents, which employ deep Q-networks in conjunction with uncertainty-aware policy gradient variants, specifically DDPG and TD3.

Results The simulations demonstrated effective management of the epidemic’s trajectory. The data indicated that masking and vaccination were highly impactful, substantially lowering both the peak severity and the overall duration of the outbreak. By synthesizing individual behaviors, policy uncertainties, and diverse interventions, our dynamic control strategy successfully reduced the epidemic’s adverse effects.

Conclusions This model addresses the limitations of earlier research by embedding human behavior and uncertainty directly into public health policy frameworks. The simulation highlights that designing effective interventions for complex pandemics requires a rigorous consideration of individual choices and imperfect data. Ultimately, masks and vaccines emerge as essential tools in this context.

Source: arXiv Generated at: 2026-06-04 00:00:00 UTC